13 Mar Knife Edge of Pandemic?
On the Knife Edge of pandemic – Is containment possible?
The headline from Dr Macintrye in Public Health Research was “On the knife edge of pandemic” Dr Macintyre is specialist from the Kirby Institure from the Faculty of Medicine at USNW (Australia). Her conclusion is that probably not. Too little, too late. As events unfolded after this it is clear that most countries have lost the ability to contain.
In 2018, they did a simulation for response to a smallpox bioterrorism simulation of a pandemic in Sydney, underpinned by mathematical modelling, which went through precisely the issues the country is now dealing with in trying to contain the spread of the virus – namely mass quarantine, travel restrictions, stricken cruise ships, mass surveillance, fnding enough beds for case isolation and mass contact tracing.
Epidemic Curve China
Stamping out the Pandemic
What did they conclude if they did nothing?
- A larger and more prolonged epidemic
- Greater stress on the health system than the 2009 pandemic
- With a estimated 2.3% case fatality
- Not enough ICU and isolation
- Not enough personal protective equipment (need over 30 million if the pandemic went for 6 months or more
- Australia will be more like Italy than China as the population is older.
On the Knife Edge of a Pandemic – Where Are We?
This image is dated 11th March 2020, and the conclusion is the same. We are over the edge. It is already too widespread.
Logarithmic Growth In Various Countries
Can you Boost Your Immunity?
While we are on the knife edge of a pandemic, it makes sense to build immunity. While seaweed has been studied over the past 50 years for antiviral properties, the evidence is not there. You can build “immunity” but not to viruses, in a short period of time. The complex immunity for viruses is discussed in this blog post. Peer reveiwed publications conclude seaweed has strong antiviral properties. For some more information check out some of the publications below. Zinc is an important inhibitor of Coronoviruses and demonstrated in SARS-1 and it would be likely to provide some protection in SARS-2. Seaweed improves outcomes in rhinovirus in trials in 2008  and a human clinical trial in 2014 .
What do you have to lose faced with a pandemic? Start today to boost your immunity. Not just good food. Food for Health.
 Macintyre CR. On a knife’s edge of a pandemic: is containment still possible? Public Health Res Pract. 2020;30(1):3012000.l. 72, no. 3, pp. 205-216, 2014. Public Health Research & Practice
 A. J. Te Velthuis, S. H. van den Worm, A. C. Sims, R. S. Baric, E. J. Snijder, and M. J. van Hemert, “Zn2+ inhibits virus and arterivirus RNA polymerase activity in vitro and zinc ionophores block the replication of these viruses in cell culture,” PLoS pathogens, vol. 6, no. 11, 2010. (PLOS)
 R. J. Snelgrove, L. Edwards, A. J. Rae, and T. Hussell, “An absence of reactive oxygen species improves the resolution of lung influenza infection,” European journal of immunology, vol. 36, no. 6, pp. 1364-1373, 2006. (PLOS)
 Grassauer A, Weinmuellner R, Meier C, Pretsch A, Prieschl-Grassauer E, Unger H. Iota-Carrageenan is a potent inhibitor of rhinovirus infection. Virol J. 2008;5:107. Published 2008 Sep 26. doi:10.1186/1743-422X-5-107 (PubMed)
 Koenighofer, M., Lion, T., Bodenteich, A. et al. Carrageenan nasal spray in virus confirmed common cold: individual patient data analysis of two randomized controlled trials. Multidiscip Respir Med 9, 57 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1186/2049-6958-9-57 (SpringerLink)
 MacIntyre C, Heslop D, Nand D, Schramm C, Butel M, Rawlinson W, et al. Exercise Mataika: white paper on response to a smallpox bioterrorism release in the Pacific. Global Biosecurity. 2019;1(1):91–105. Exercise Mataika